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The flu seasons of 2020 and 2021 have been delicate, largely because of measures folks took in opposition to COVID, resembling sporting masks, social distancing and utilizing copious quantities of hand gel. 2022, nonetheless, appears to be like like an entire totally different kettle of fish.
The southern hemisphere – the place flu season begins – has been hit onerous. Australia, for instance, has had the worst flu season in 5 years, and it has been hammered by COVID, too. This yr has been the primary actual alternative for each viruses to flow into freely as all COVID restrictions have now been lifted.
It’s strongly suggested that individuals within the UK get the flu vaccine and guarantee they’re updated with their COVID vaccine boosters. Scientists aren’t certain how these viruses will dovetail, however proof means that being contaminated with each viruses concurrently significantly will increase the chance of extreme illness and dying.
About 33 million folks within the UK are eligible for a free flu vaccine, together with these aged 50 or older, pregnant ladies, folks in residential care, and frontline healthcare staff. There’s additionally a nasal-spray vaccine for youngsters aged two years and older, with many vaccine rollouts delivered in faculties.
Nice strain on the NHS
Flu often has an “R quantity” between one and two, which means that, on common, every contaminated particular person will infect one or two folks. This degree of flu transmission is critical.
Within the UK, throughout the winters of 2017-18 and 2018-19, there have been 46,215 and 39,670 flu-related hospital admissions respectively. And, as of early September 2022, there have been 590 every day hospital admissions with COVID, with these numbers on the rise.
NHS trusts are often underneath higher strain throughout the winter. But already within the autumn, a number of well being providers report that their capacities are restricted. Derriford Hospital in Plymouth had waits of as much as 72 hours for admission from A&E, whereas the East of England Ambulance Service lately got here near declaring a “main incident”.
Nottingham Hospitals Belief declared a “important incident” on September 29. The legacy of Boris Johnson’s pandemic governance, with increased case and dying charges than most comparable nations, has created additional pressures throughout the well being service, together with hospitals and first care. This doesn’t bode nicely heading right into a winter when there’s a threat of excessive ranges of each flu and COVID.
Regardless of the continual circulating of recent variants and sub-variants, the COVID vaccine continues to supply excessive safety in opposition to extreme illness and dying. The strains of flu additionally change every winter and are, to some extent, unpredictable. So flu vaccine effectiveness is variable, however usually between 40% and 60%.
Information from Australia supplies an early estimate of round 40% effectiveness from their 2022 flu season. Nonetheless, that is nonetheless an necessary degree of safety, with hospitalisation charges amongst vaccinated folks usually a lot decrease than in unvaccinated populations.
The Australian information is necessary for folks within the UK and elsewhere within the northern hemisphere. Surveillance businesses have a look at circulating virus varieties within the southern hemisphere, and use that information to determine the possible influence in their very own nations, together with the manufacturing of the flu vaccine. Australian virology studies present the overwhelming majority of their laboratory-confirmed circumstances have been a pressure of influenza referred to as H3N2.
The UK Well being Safety Company says this yr’s flu jab is an efficient match for this pressure.
Different measures
With the added pressures already on the NHS, a excessive vaccine uptake will likely be necessary. However sporting a masks can even assist cut back the unfold of flu and COVID. Assembly outdoor or opening a window to enhance air flow can even assist to stop new chains of transmission and reduce the probability of infecting weak folks.
The UK winter of 2022-23 will likely be an excellent time to attempt to keep nicely, leaving some healthcare capability for emergencies and weak folks.
Michael Head has beforehand obtained funding from the Invoice & Melinda Gates Basis and the UK Division for Worldwide Growth.
