Two vans transport gold ore from Barrick Cowal Gold Mine in New South Wales, Australia. Jason Benz Bennee/Shutterstock
The Sixteenth-century King Ferdinand of Spain despatched his topics overseas with the command: “Get gold, humanely if doable, however in any respect hazards, get gold.” His assertion rings true at the moment. Gold stays one of many world’s costliest substances, however mining it is likely one of the most environmentally and socially damaging processes on the planet.
Round 7% of the gold bought globally every year is used for business, expertise or drugs. The remainder winds up in financial institution vaults and jewelry outlets.
Stunning objects and steady investments are worthwhile issues to create and personal, and sometimes have important cultural worth. However neither can justify gold mining’s staggering human and ecological toll. In a current examine, my colleagues and I confirmed the way it is likely to be doable to finish mining and as a substitute rely solely on recycled gold.
Regardless of enhancements in gold mining practices over the previous century and new rules designed to restrict mining’s impacts, this business continues to wreak havoc upon landscapes throughout each continent besides Antarctica.
In a given yr, gold mines emit extra greenhouse gases than all passenger flights between European nations mixed. Gold mining additionally accounts for 38% of annual international mercury emissions, which trigger tens of millions of small-scale miners to undergo from continual mercury poisoning, which might trigger debilitating sickness, particularly in kids.
Our analysis concerned modelling hypothetical eventualities wherein gold consumption may decline to extra sustainable ranges. Utilizing present recycling charges, we examined a completely round gold financial system wherein the world’s complete provide of gold got here from recycled sources.
Even at the moment, almost one-quarter of annual gold demand is provided via recycling, making it one of many world’s most recycled supplies. The recycling course of makes use of no mercury and has lower than 1% of the water and carbon footprint of mined gold.
We discovered {that a} international decline in gold mining wouldn’t essentially derail any of gold’s three central capabilities in jewelry, expertise or as an funding.
In the direction of circularity
Gold shares and three eventualities of gold flows.
Lezak et al. (2022), CC BY-NC-ND
Our mannequin confirmed that the gold used for industrial functions (primarily in dentistry and smartphones) may very well be provided for hundreds of years even when all gold mining stopped tomorrow.
We additionally discovered that jewelry may nonetheless be produced with recycled gold in a completely round gold business. There would simply be about 55% much less to go round, which might nonetheless go away greater than sufficient for important makes use of.
In an effort to make this future a actuality, buyers must restrict their buying and selling to present reserves, with out including newly mined gold to their coffers.
A world with a shrinking provide of gold would doubtless imply that buyers would pay extra for a similar 24-karat pure gold ring. However extra doubtless, jewelry purchases would shift to cheaper (and extra sturdy) alloys of gold which are already common. And sooner or later, demand for gold could decline as shoppers grow to be extra involved with making sustainable decisions.
The position that invested gold performs within the international financial system would doubtless proceed to perform no matter extraction. Like Renaissance artwork, gold is effective exactly as a result of it’s scarce. Ending gold mining wouldn’t put an finish to the shopping for and promoting of gold for financial institution vaults. As an alternative, it could make present shares of gold extra precious.
No matter whether or not the world wants gold, our analysis means that the world doesn’t want gold mining.
Non-public buyers and central banks could balk at this concept. The US authorities, for instance, is the world’s single largest proprietor of gold, holding US$11 (9.1) billion in reserves. However transitions to sustainability are at all times hard-won and the gold business is not any exception.
Impressed by different transitions
Like gold, the extraction of fossil fuels can also be environmentally damaging. However not like gold, fossil fuels present heat and electrical energy to properties and companies, energy to automobiles and fertiliser to farms. Transitioning away from this useful resource required many years of analysis and funding into clear vitality applied sciences.
In contrast, discovering substitutes for gold doesn’t require any analysis. Jewelry may be made extra sustainable by mixing gold with different metals. Traders can depend on present gold shares and diversify to different steady belongings. And expertise can proceed to make use of recycled gold when acceptable.
Closing gold mines is step one. However many areas have grown depending on gold mining, and artisanal mining alone helps as many as 19 million miners and their households worldwide, principally in creating economies.
These miners deserve a simply transition that ensures they don’t grow to be collateral harm within the shift to sustainability. Governments should present a strong security internet for former gold miners and their households. That features providing low-cost coaching and reskilling to make sure that miners can discover employment in additional sustainable industries.
Steps towards sustainability
Responsibly drawing down gold extraction will take time. However a number of measures can be found to start the transition at the moment.
On the demand facet of the business, main jewelry manufacturers, together with Pandora, have already dedicated to utilizing solely recycled gold by 2025. International expertise agency Apple has additionally lately set a purpose to make use of solely recycled supplies by 2030.
On the availability facet, mining corporations ought to start retiring mines that extract solely gold. Many copper mines produce gold as a byproduct, which is able to doubtless proceed into the long run.
In the meantime, institutional buyers ought to cease investing in new gold mines. That features teams just like the World Financial institution, which has invested US$800 (£660) million in gold mines in Africa, Asia, South America and the Pacific Islands since 2010.
Justice-minded fund managers, comparable to these overseeing endowments, ought to add gold mining corporations alongside coal producers to their divestment lists. And central banks ought to redirect their future investments towards different steady shops of worth, or not less than supply solely recycled gold.
The world is crammed with tough sustainability trade-offs. Gold mining is just not certainly one of them. Drawing down this business stands out as a comparatively straightforward technique to scale back humanity’s footprint on a fragile planet.
Stephen Lezak is a Gates Scholar on the College of Cambridge Division of Geography and a researcher on the College of Oxford Smith College of Enterprise and the Surroundings.
