It sounded a contact determined – Prime Minister Scott Morrison imploring backpackers to “come on down” to Australia, because the Omicron disaster escalated.
“Get pleasure from a vacation right here”, stated the one-time managing director of Tourism Australia, and “on the similar time be a part of our workforce and assist us”. The backpacker circulate is sluggish, so there’ll be a $3 million promoting marketing campaign (minus Lara Bingle) to lure them, and so they’ll get a rebate on their visas if they arrive quickly.
Individuals had been fast to see the irony – whereas Morrison was spruiking working holidays, journey recommendation within the US was up to date to say “keep away from journey to Australia”.
“Come on down” wasn’t Morrison’s solely trite line. One other was that “we should respect” Omicron. This accompanies his insistence we shouldn’t “concern” it, a part of the pitch for a “balanced” response to the pandemic’s newest ogre.
There’s plenty of concern on the unfastened. Worry within the well being sector about coping within the coming weeks. Households’ concern for relations shut away in aged care houses. Worry in some companies that shortages of employees or prospects or each might kill them.
After which there are the individuals feeling weak to the illness itself, even whether it is delicate in a majority of instances.
Morrison says he and the federal government perceive the frustration of Australians going via this disrupted summer season. Polling displays emotions effectively past frustration. 9’s Resolve ballot, printed this week, had the Coalition’s main vote (34%) falling behind Labor’s (35%).
Aside from unexpected occasions, the PM’s future will likely be a chance on voter volatility. They’re in a really grumpy temper now. However the place will they be in Could?
To exacerbate his troubles, as he fights his method via the approaching hazardous months, Morrison is surrounded by a crew that appears removed from match-fit, when you get past Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
Frydenberg has returned to the fray after his bout of COVID; Morrison must rely on him for a lot of the heavy lifting, past crafting the price range.
Key to the Coalition’s re-election marketing campaign will likely be a large assault on Anthony Albanese. However the place are the efficient assault canines to again up the chief?
Mathias Cormann, now watching the unfolding Australian drama from the posh of his OECD job in Paris, was commonly deployed to land punches; his alternative, Simon Birmingham, is diligent with out Cormann’s influence.
In canine phrases, Barnaby Joyce is of a breed that poses threat to their homeowners. He might or might not maintain up the Nationals’ regional vote however may very well be costing the Coalition assist within the cities, the place unbiased candidates make a lot of declaring their Liberal opponents “vote with Barnaby”.
Peter Dutton, who nonetheless carries a management baton, is a basic head kicker however appears to be maintaining his personal head down. He’s anticipated, nonetheless, to step up his exercise quickly and will likely be central to the nationwide safety theme within the authorities’s election marketing campaign.
On local weather coverage, Angus Taylor, a poor communicator, will must be cautious of miscuing in making an attempt to demolish Labor’s coverage. The Coalition gained’t get away with exaggerations like 2019.
Given Morrison’s vulnerability amongst feminine voters, the PM additionally wants ministers who can mount a convincing case on ladies’s coverage. However Minister for Ladies Marise Payne hasn’t proven herself as much as the duty – she hates venturing into the media, and is tied up together with her most important portfolio of overseas affairs. There is no such thing as a Julie Bishop within the ranks.
As Morrison tries to stress states to open their faculties on time and preserve them open, Schooling Minister Alan Tudge stays sidelined whereas an inquiry examines an allegation (which he denies) from a former staffer and ex-lover that he was violent in direction of her (kicking her off the bed). There’s no official phrase on the report’s timing. If Tudge isn’t definitively cleared, Morrison may have one more downside.
Within the important well being space, the hyperactive Greg Hunt will run onerous to the ending line. However he’s retiring, leaving the pertinent query of who’d be his successor in a re-elected Morrison authorities.
Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly this week described what that individual, or Labor’s Mark Butler if there’s a change of presidency, can count on to face.
“I believe [in] winter we’ll see extra COVID. That’s been the case in each winter thus far in all components of the world. Whether or not that will likely be Omicron for those who haven’t but obtained it throughout this wave or one other variant, I can’t inform that.
“What I do know, although, is we’re virtually definitely going to have a flu season this yr as effectively in winter. And flu and coronavirus collectively, as has been seen in a number of nations within the northern hemisphere proper now, is a problem.”
In the meantime, Morrison, having waved the populist flag by dispatching the unvaccinated Novak Djokovic, is undermined by homegrown vaccine rebels in his ranks.
This week he denounced the views of the Nationals’ George Christensen, who stated dad and mom mustn’t have their kids vaccinated, and Christensen has been compelled to face down from a parliamentary committee.
With a February parliamentary sitting looming, who is aware of whether or not Christensen will play up within the Home? Definitely the 2 Coalition senators, Alex Antic and Gerard Rennick, who late final yr boycotted votes on authorities laws as a result of Morrison wouldn’t attempt to override state vaccine mandates, stay defiant.
The fortnight February session will likely be transient however brutal. There’ll be Senate estimates hearings, all the time stuffed with grenades. Within the decrease home, it will likely be onerous for Labor to “lose” query instances.
In the course of the fortnight, on February 12, will likely be a “tremendous Saturday” – 4 state byelections in NSW. These outcomes may have vital fallout for the temper federally.
The seats are Willoughby (Liberal, 21%), Strathfield (Labor, 5%), Bega (Liberal, 6.9%) and Monaro (Nationals, 11.6%). All have high-profile departees – respectively, Gladys Berejiklian, Jodi McKay (former Labor chief), Andrew Constance (former state minister now operating federally) and John Barilaro (former Nationals chief).
The NSW authorities has been hand-in-glove with Morrison in desirous to “push via” the Omicron disaster with every part as open as doable.
Tremendous Saturday will likely be a referendum on NSW chief Dominic Perrottet’s dealing with of Omicron, a take a look at of whether or not COVID administration is popping from an electoral optimistic to a unfavorable. It is going to even be an oblique judgement on Morrison’s dealing with of it too – or not less than it will likely be seen as such.
Whereas Tremendous Saturday will likely be an vital real-time barometer earlier than the Could federal election, it gained’t be the final. South Australia goes to the polls on March 19, with the Liberal authorities on the ropes because it struggles with COVID and the fallout from scandals.
An enormous Tremendous Saturday swing towards the NSW authorities would ship deep shock waves via the federal Coalition, which (on typical knowledge) must make features in that state to outlive. If a nasty lead to SA introduced a double hit, the temper within the Morrison ranks can be extraordinarily bleak.
Michelle Grattan doesn’t work for, seek the advice of, personal shares in or obtain funding from any firm or organisation that may profit from this text, and has disclosed no related affiliations past their educational appointment.