A protest exterior the Russian Embassy on Feb. 22, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine. Chris McGrath/Getty Photos
As some Western observers have feared, Russian President Vladimir Putin has simply proved that his aggression towards Ukraine was by no means actually about NATO.
In a speech on Feb. 21, 2022, Putin acknowledged the occupied territories in Ukraine of Donetsk and Luhansk and moved Russian forces into them.
Putin’s speech confirmed that he has concocted his personal view of historical past and world affairs. In his view, Ukraine’s independence is an anomaly – it’s a state that ought to not exist. Putin sees his army strikes as a means of correcting this divergence. Largely absent from his dialogue was his earlier emphatic grievance that an eventual unfold of NATO to Ukraine threatens Russia’s safety.
Since he got here to energy in 1999, Putin has created an ever-shrinking group of advisers who reinforce his worldview. This permits Putin to disregard not solely Ukrainian public opinion, which has turned strongly in opposition to Russia since 2014, but in addition world voices condemning his strikes.
Putin’s echo chamber
Many writers have debated how Putin has remained in energy for over 20 years. Whereas his fashionable assist in Russia has typically been excessive – particularly throughout high-profile strikes such because the annexation of Crimea – what could also be extra vital in facilitating his longevity is that this small circle of advisers who inform him what he needs to listen to. After he served as prime minister, he returned to the presidency in 2012. From that time onward, Putin started to focus closely on his narratives about Russia on the planet, and he started to make strikes on Ukraine.
Putin’s echo chamber retains him insulated from needing to answer public opinion that may in any other case discourage him from making an attempt to convey Ukraine again into Russia’s orbit by pressure. Navy operations in Ukraine are unpopular amongst Russians, however Putin’s inside circle continues to guard the president and defend his choices.
Ukrainian negativity towards Russia
Certainly one of Putin’s most vital concepts is that Ukrainians and Russians are the identical, sharing historical past, cultural traditions and, in lots of instances, a language.
Putin’s claims on Ukraine have made Ukrainians extra united of their views of their very own nation and its European future.
Ukrainians additionally really feel extra negatively towards Russia than they’ve previously, with a pointy drop in pro-Russian attitudes since 2014. Absolutely 88% of Ukrainians assist their nation’s independence from Russia. Survey information from February 2021 exhibits that 56% of individuals throughout Ukraine assist the nation’s path towards NATO membership. This quantity was 30% in 2014, simply after the annexation of Crimea.
Even the Ukrainian residents dwelling within the occupied territories care more and more much less about how the battle is resolved. They’re much less involved about being a part of Ukraine or Russia and extra fearful about their very own financial well-being.
A funeral in Kyiv on Feb. 22, 2022, for a Ukrainian soldier killed throughout shelling by Russian-backed separatists within the east.
Pierre Crom/Getty Photos
Russian aggression was by no means about NATO
Putin’s anti-NATO rhetoric has additionally pushed Ukraine’s Western allies towards unity in opposition to Russia. These Western international locations see an extra Russian invasion of Ukraine as a European downside, and lots of assist a NATO response to defend Ukraine.
However we’d argue that Putin’s claims that NATO threatens Russia’s safety, and that the one means Russia will again down is that if NATO guarantees by no means to confess Ukraine, is a bait and swap.
First, Ukraine doesn’t have a transparent path towards NATO membership. Ukraine would wish to implement substantial reforms – together with, however not restricted to, main reforms in its army – as a way to qualify for NATO membership.
Second, Putin has lied many instances about his plans for Ukraine. Any concession from NATO is not any assure of peace or safety for Ukraine.
Lastly, as students of latest Ukraine and Russia, we now have seen this tactic from Putin earlier than. In response to the 2013-2014 pro-democracy, anti-corruption Euromaidan protests in Ukraine that ousted a Russian-backed chief, Putin annexed Crimea, a big peninsula within the south of Ukraine. When separatists declared autonomy in Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014, Russia supported them first with financial and army assist and later with Russian troops. Whereas Putin claimed this was to guard Russian audio system in these areas, it’s now clear that these strikes have been a precursor to this week’s territorial grabs.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a gathering of advisers on Feb. 21, 2022 in Moscow.
Alexey Nikolsky / Sputnik / AFP by way of Getty Photos
What occurs subsequent?
The rising hostilities threaten to exacerbate a disaster of internally displaced peoples and refugees. A minimum of 1.5 million individuals have already been pressured to depart their houses in Donetsk and Luhansk. Present estimates mission that some 5 million Ukrainians is likely to be pressured to depart the nation if Russia invades additional.
Putin’s recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics might have a spillover impact on different territorial disputes within the area. Some consider that Transnistria, positioned on the Moldovan-Ukrainian border, could possibly be the following to obtain recognition from Russia. The popularity of separatist claims in Ukraine might simply be the beginning of a better development of Russian motion to seize extra former Soviet territories.
In an try and thwart additional violence and aggression, the European Union and the USA have imposed new, aggressive sanctions on Russia, focusing on its politicians and members of the financial elite. The German authorities made the choice to not certify the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which might have introduced Russian pure fuel on to Germany as an alternative of transiting by way of Ukraine.
After all, taking these stands in opposition to Russia can have an financial affect in Europe. In a tweet responding to Germany’s resolution, Dmitry Medvedev, the previous President of Russia, snidely famous that Europeans needs to be ready for dearer fuel. The U.S., too, might even see larger costs on sure items corresponding to gasoline, and the battle might affect world meals safety if Ukraine’s important agricultural exports are affected.
Nevertheless, we’d argue that such issues pale compared to the hardships that Ukrainians are going through.
Finally, Russia’s actions will not be attributable to fears of NATO enlargement. That’s merely pretext. Somewhat, as Putin so clearly laid out on Feb. 21, they’re motivated by an antagonism that refuses to acknowledge the truth of Ukrainian statehood.
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Jacob Lassin receives funding from the Nationwide Council for Eurasian and East European Analysis.
Emily Channell-Justice doesn’t work for, seek the advice of, personal shares in or obtain funding from any firm or group that might profit from this text, and has disclosed no related affiliations past their tutorial appointment.
