Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) with Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller at a launch ceremony for the Nord Stream fuel pipeline, Sept. 6, 2011, in Vyborg, Russia. Sasha Mordovets/Getty Photos
In December 2006, The Economist journal printed a canopy drawing of Russian president Vladimir Putin, dressed like a Thirties gangster in a darkish go well with and fedora hat, beneath the headline “Don’t Mess with Russia.” Putin held a gasoline nozzle, gripping it like a machine gun. The goal presumably was Europe, which relied closely on Russia for oil and pure fuel.
The duvet story’s subheading asserted, “Russia’s routine abuse of its power muscle is dangerous for its residents, its neighbourhood and the world.” At present that assertion nonetheless rings true with Russia’s cutoff of pure fuel deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria.
As an power scholar who has lived and labored in Europe, I do know that fuel is a valuable commodity that’s important for industries, energy technology and heating buildings – particularly in northern Europe, the place winters may be harsh and lengthy. This explains why European nations import fuel from many sources, however have grown to rely on Russian provides to maintain their properties heat and their economies buzzing.
From oil embargoes to fuel cutoffs
The power weapon can take many kinds.
In 1967 and 1973, Arab nations lower off oil exports to the U.S. and different Western nations that supported Israel in conflicts in opposition to its Center East neighbors. Withholding provide was a strategy to inflict financial ache on opponents and win coverage concessions.
To scale back oil consumption, the U.S. adopted a nationwide pace restrict of 55 mph in 1974 in response to the 1973 Arab oil embargo.
Warren Ok Leffler/US Information & World Report Assortment/PhotoQuest by way of Getty Photos
At present, an oil embargo won’t work as properly. Oil is a fungible commodity in a world market: If one supply cuts off shipments, importing international locations can simply purchase extra oil from different suppliers, though they might pay larger costs on spot markets than they might have beneath long-term contracts.
That’s potential as a result of greater than 60% of the world’s every day oil consumption is delivered by ship. At any given second, a flotilla of seaborne vessels is carrying crude oil from one level to a different across the globe. If there are disruptions, the ships can change path and get to their locations inside a matter of weeks.
Consequently, it’s exhausting for one oil-producing nation to stop a consuming nation from shopping for oil on the worldwide market.
Against this, pure fuel is moved primarily by pipeline. Solely 13% of the world’s fuel provide is delivered by tankers carrying liquefied pure fuel. This makes fuel extra of a regional or continental commodity, with sellers and patrons who’re bodily related to one another.
It’s a lot more durable for patrons to seek out different pure fuel provides than different oil sources as a result of laying new pipelines or constructing new liquefied pure fuel import and export terminals can value billions of {dollars} and take a few years. Consequently, fuel disruptions are felt shortly and might final a very long time.
French and German consultants debate how the European Union will reply to what leaders known as power blackmail.
The actual value of shopping for Russian fuel
European nations’ dependence on Russian power, notably pure fuel, complicates their international insurance policies. As many observers have identified since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, European customers’ heavy reliance on Russian oil and fuel over the many years has funded and emboldened Putin’s regime and made European governments hesitant within the face of dangerous conduct. It was no accident that Russia invaded in February, when it’s coldest and European demand for fuel for heating buildings is highest.
As a result of the European fuel grid spans many international locations, Russia’s shutoff of fuel to Poland and Bulgaria doesn’t simply have an effect on these two international locations. Costs will rise as fuel pressures within the pipelines that run by these international locations to different nations drop. The scarcity will ultimately ripple by to different international locations additional downstream, corresponding to France and Germany.
If Europeans can scale back their fuel consumption shortly because the heating season winds down and fuel energy crops are changed with different sources, they will sluggish the onset of ache. Fuller use of liquefied pure fuel imports from coastal terminals might additionally assist.
Within the longer run, the European Union is working to extend power effectivity in present buildings, that are already environment friendly in comparison with U.S. buildings. It additionally goals to fill fuel storage caverns to 90% capability through the off-peak seasons when fuel demand is decrease, and ramp up native manufacturing of biomethane – which might substitute for fossil fuel – derived from agricultural waste or different natural, renewable sources.
Constructing extra import terminals to usher in liquefied pure fuel from the U.S., Canada or different pleasant nations can be an possibility. Nonetheless, creating new fossil gas infrastructure would battle with efforts to scale back greenhouse fuel emissions to sluggish local weather change.
Ramping up wind, photo voltaic, geothermal and nuclear energy crops as shortly as potential to displace the continent’s pure fuel energy crops is a key precedence for the EU. So is changing pure fuel heating techniques with electrical warmth pumps, which might additionally present air-con through the continent’s more and more frequent and intense summer time warmth waves. These options align with the EU’s local weather goals, which means that Russia’s fuel cutoffs may in the end speed up European nations’ efforts to shift to renewable power and extra environment friendly use of electrical energy.
All of those choices are efficient however take time. Sadly, Europe doesn’t have many choices earlier than subsequent winter. Prospects are worse for power clients in poorer areas, corresponding to Bangladesh and sub-Saharan Africa, which is able to merely go with out within the face of upper power costs.
Will Russia’s cutoff backfire?
Whereas fuel provide disruptions will undoubtedly inflict ache on European customers, in addition they are exhausting on Russia, which badly wants the cash. At present, Putin is ordering “unfriendly” international locations to pay for Russian power in rubles to spice up Russia’s foreign money, which has misplaced worth beneath the load of financial sanctions. Poland and Bulgaria had refused to pay in rubles.
Reducing off fuel provides in February would have been costly for Russia and absolutely would have impressed much more backlash in Europe. By wielding pure fuel as a weapon when the climate is delicate, Russia can flex its petro-muscles with out being too aggressive or dropping an excessive amount of cash. The important thing query now’s whether or not Europe wants Russian fuel greater than Russia wants income from European gross sales.
[Interested in science headlines but not politics? Or just politics or religion? The Conversation has newsletters to suit your interests.]
Michael E. Webber is affiliated with The College of Texas at Austin, Vitality Impression Companions (a cleantech enterprise agency), and IdeaSmiths LLC (a consulting firm).
