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For practically two years, tens of millions of members of the general public have been submitting each day well being reviews to the ZOE COVID Research, serving to us to trace the pandemic because it unfolds. Specifically, the 480 million reviews submitted through the research’s app have proven that because the virus has developed, so too have the signs it causes.
Again in 2020, it shortly turned clear that the unique and alpha variations of the coronavirus induced three quite common signs – cough, fever and lack of odor – in addition to not less than 20 others. These included fatigue, complications, shortness of breath, muscle pains and gastrointestinal issues, in addition to extra uncommon phenomena reminiscent of pores and skin rashes and “COVID tongue”.
When delta appeared, we then seen a shift in probably the most steadily reported signs. Beforehand frequent signs reminiscent of shortness of breath, fever and lack of odor fell down the rankings. Chilly-like signs – together with a runny nostril, sore throat and chronic sneezing – turned extra frequent, together with a headache and cough, significantly in individuals who had been vaccinated.
Omicron seems to be persevering with the pattern set by delta. It’s inflicting signs which might be far more like an everyday chilly, significantly in individuals who’ve been vaccinated, and fewer common systemic signs, reminiscent of nausea, muscle pains, diarrhoea and pores and skin rashes.
We checked out well being reviews from individuals who reported having COVID in December, as omicron unfold via the UK, and in contrast them with information from early October, when delta was the dominant variant. We then checked our findings from this comparability by additionally analysing information from a small group of contributors who had been informed by the federal government that their optimistic PCR outcomes had been suspected or confirmed omicron infections.
Our evaluation confirmed no vital distinction within the total symptom profile of delta and omicron, with the highest 5 signs in each time intervals being a runny nostril, headache, fatigue, sneezing and a sore throat. However in the case of the general prevalence of the signs, there are some clear variations.
The prevalence of omicron signs.
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For instance, anosmia (lack of odor or style) was within the prime ten in October however has fallen to seventeenth place. What was as soon as a key indicator of COVID is now solely seen in round one in 5 folks testing optimistic. And in keeping with our information, lower than a 3rd of individuals (29%) will ever expertise a fever, which can be far much less frequent than we’ve seen prior to now.
Importantly, we discovered that solely half of individuals with COVID had any of the basic three signs of fever, cough or lack of sense of odor, suggesting that the federal government’s steerage for PCR testing (which means that you need to get a take a look at in case you have one in all these three signs) is woefully outdated.
How unhealthy is omicron?
This new variant is far more infectious than earlier variants, inflicting a surge in instances throughout the UK and in different nations. And though it’s not but clear whether or not we will likely be dealing with an amazing wave of hospitalisations from the illness, it’s necessary to keep in mind that whereas omicron and delta could really feel like a chilly to many people, it could nonetheless kill or trigger long-term signs that disrupt each day life, particularly for individuals who haven’t been vaccinated or are immunocompromised.
To date, we’ve seen nearly all of instances in youthful folks, however we’re additionally now seeing instances rising in older age teams whereas the general an infection price stays so excessive. The latest rise in optimistic instances within the over-75s is worrying, however we’re hopeful that the excessive ranges of vaccination within the UK in older and extra weak teams will proceed to translate to milder signs and few hospitalisations. The key drawback with omicron is extra the wave of illness absence it’s inflicting in key well being workers.
Is it omicron or a chilly?
As we head additional into the depths of winter right here within the UK there are some fairly nasty colds going round, in addition to the perennial flu. The ZOE COVID Research app information tells us the signs brought on by the present COVID variants are similar to these of an everyday chilly. Which means that it’s not potential to know for positive what you’ve obtained based mostly on signs alone. When the speed of COVID is excessive, a brand new sore throat, runny nostril or uncommon fatigue must be handled as COVID till you’ve been examined.
As a result of contributors to the ZOE COVID Research app log any each day signs they’re experiencing, in addition to any COVID take a look at outcomes, we’re additionally in a position to observe the prevalence of non-COVID colds. Simply three months in the past, round one in 12 folks with new respiratory signs examined optimistic for COVID. Nonetheless, with omicron round 50% of “new colds” presently are, in truth, COVID.
Even if you happen to suppose it’s only a chilly, take a look at to ensure.
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So if you happen to or a member of the family are feeling unwell, there’s likelihood that it might be COVID, particularly if you happen to’re snuffling and sneezing loads. It’s best to keep house and get examined to make sure. Keep in mind that though lateral movement assessments are good, particularly if you happen to swab each your throat and nostril, they’re much less delicate than PCR assessments. Once you do one, try to repeat it within the following days, as a single unfavorable lateral movement outcome isn’t a assure that you just aren’t contaminated.
Lastly, whatever the authorities tips, whether or not you have got COVID or not, it’s greatest to remain at house if you happen to’re feeling ailing with unusual or cold-like signs, and to keep away from contacts and put on a masks if you happen to do exit, to keep away from spreading your germs to others who could also be extra weak.
Tim Spector is a co-founder of the info science and diet firm ZOE Ltd that runs the ZOE COVID research. The research receives a grant from the UK Division of Well being and Social Care. Tim Spector receives royalties from books he has written such because the Eating regimen Fantasy and Spoon-Fed.
