The brand new poster boy of left-wing South American politics? Juan Barreto/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
Colombians will resolve their subsequent president on June 19, 2022, with a alternative between two candidates promising “change.” However what they imply by change could be very, very completely different.
The 2 runoff contenders – one a left-wing senator and former guerrilla, the opposite a right-wing populist within the mould of Donald Trump – maintain views on the nation’s previous, current and future which are poles aside. Whoever wins will change Ivan Duque, an institution conservative who has served as president since 2018.
As a scholar of Latin American politics, I see this election as a pivotal second for Colombia. The result might decide whether or not the nation deepens its dedication to democracy or alternatively cultivates authoritarian tendencies in society and politics. And it comes at a delicate time. Whoever wins the presidency will inherit a number of challenges, from shoring up the delicate peace deal that in 2016 dedicated to finish a decadeslong battle, to combating rampant inequality, widespread violence and the area’s migration disaster.
From Historic Pact to historic victory?
The runoff follows a first-round vote on Might 29 that narrowed the presidential alternative to 2 from a subject of six. The race is now between Gustavo Petro, who heads the Historic Pact – a left-center coalition – and Rodolfo Hernandez, a controversial businessman and former mayor, operating for the League of Anti-corrupt Governors Occasion.
Presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernandez is seen because the ‘Colombian Trump.’
Photograph by Raul Arboleda/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
Newest polls point out that the race is simply too tight to name regardless of a wholesome lead for the Historic Pact candidate within the first spherical of voting.
Certainly, Petro – who’s operating on a ticket with Black grassroots activist and lawyer Francia Marquez as his vice presidential choose – garnered 8.5 million votes on Might 29, some 40.3% of the full.
Nonetheless, Hernandez – who acquired shut to six million votes – is more likely to profit by being the favourite to choose up the vast majority of the 5 million votes that went to the third-placed candidate within the Might 29 poll, right-wing candidate Federico Gutierrez.
The rise of the ‘TikTok King’
The previous few weeks of the marketing campaign have proven a extra complicated and fluid political situation, making predicting a winner troublesome.
Hernandez climbed forward of Petro in polls carried out the week after Might 29. However a number of elements might but hamper Hernandez.
The 77-year-old Hernandez presents himself as an outsider combating corruption and operating towards the political institution. However this has been undermined by the truth that he faces an upcoming trial for corruption himself. He denies the 200 fees of corruption, however some authorized analysts contend there’s a sturdy case towards him. Hernandez has additionally been strongly endorsed by Colombia’s right-wing political elite.
In the meantime, his reluctance to debate the problems – he agreed to a public sparring with Petro solely after being ordered to by courtroom – mixed with assertions that he needs to dismiss the legislative department and can declare a state of emergency as quickly as he’s elected – places his authoritarian edge on full show to the voters. He has additionally been criticized for voting towards the peace settlement within the 2016 nationwide plebiscite.
Hernandez has been in contrast with different right-wing populists who’ve discovered success in recent times, resembling Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Similar to Trump, Hernandez is portrayed by his supporters as a profitable entrepreneur who can put these expertise to make use of as a very good political administrator. And in keeping with Bolsonaro, he has been overtly sexist and xenophobic.
Even his repute because the “King of TikTok” will be seen as ripped from the playbooks of different populists, together with Trump, with an emphasis on easy messages.
Nonetheless, Hernandez’s right-wing message evidently appeals to many Colombians and has been helped alongside by institution conservatives eradicated within the first spherical of voting throwing their assist – and probably their voters – his method.
His self-presentation as an outsider combating the political institution additionally appeals to many citizens who’re bored with a political system that had not solved the violence, poverty and corruption that permeates within the nation.
Against this, many analysts from the mainstream media in Colombia have steered that Petro’s marketing campaign might have peaked within the first spherical and can discover it troublesome to develop a lot within the runoff.
Leaders of the Hope Heart Coalition publicly backed Petro after their candidate got here fourth on Might 29. However the 900,000 votes the centrist candidate garnered pale compared with the 5 million votes that went to third-place institution conservative candidate Federico Gutiérrez – who has since endorsed Hernandez.
Turnout could also be key – simply over 50% of the voters participated within the Might 29 contest. Political analysts recommend {that a} bigger turnout – particularly an enormous youth exhibiting – would profit Petro.
Third time fortunate for Petro?
For Petro, that is his third run for president. In 2018 he completed second, with 8 million votes.
He’s outperforming his earlier runs, largely due to the Historic Pact. Shaped in February 2021, it’s the most important coalition of social actions and political organizations in Colombian historical past and has been injecting momentum into his marketing campaign. Petro has been aided, too, by the rising nationwide profile of his operating mate, Francia Marquez.
Francia got here second to Petro in a main race to choose the Historic Pact’s candidate, operating as the top of a broad-based motion that represents teams which have lengthy been excluded from political energy in Colombia. Francia – who’s poised to develop into South America’s first Black feminine vp – advocates insurance policies geared at empowering Black, poor and Indigenous Colombians. She additionally has sturdy assist amongst college students, different younger Colombians and members of the nation’s LGBTQ neighborhood.
Each Francia and Petro are seen as challenges to establishment politics in Colombia.
Political opponents of Petro contend that his presidency might rework Colombia into “one other Venezuela” characterised, as they see it, by a dictatorial regime that pushed the nation right into a humanitarian and financial disaster.
But Petro has repeatedly insisted that he’s a progressive on the lookout for change by means of democratic means. His platform combines agrarian reform, progressive taxation, ecological clear vitality, sustainable financial growth and state funding in public schooling and well being care.
Towards democracy or authoritarianism?
The primary spherical vote within the Colombia presidential election was usually seen as a vote by the folks towards the established order. Certainly, such sentiment had already been expressed via 2021’s nationwide strike – the most important within the nation’s historical past.
In lots of respects, Colombia is a particularly fragile liberal democracy – scarred by rampant inequality and discovering it exhausting to transition from a long-running battle amongst authorities forces, paramilitary teams and leftists rebels.
As such, a lot is at stake within the June 19 runoff vote – it might resolve whether or not Colombia deepens its dedication to democracy, peace and justice, or as an alternative strikes towards accommodating authoritarian tendencies.
Agustin Lao-Montes doesn’t work for, seek the advice of, personal shares in or obtain funding from any firm or organisation that might profit from this text, and has disclosed no related affiliations past their educational appointment.
