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Relating to respiratory viruses, COVID has been our best concern over the previous two winters. So that you would possibly really feel some facets of déjà vu as winter 2022 approaches in Australia.
However this 12 months is completely different. With relaxed public well being measures and the opening of worldwide borders, we’ll probably see an increase in flu circumstances. That is on high of a predicted rise in COVID.
The potential double-whammy has prompted the federal authorities to announce A$2.1 billion to focus on these anticipated spikes. The funding has been earmarked for measures together with vaccination, testing and measures to guard aged care.
Right here’s what to anticipate and tips on how to defend your self forward of winter.
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Why can we anticipate extra flu?
The principle cause behind the anticipated rise in flu in 2022 is the opening of Australia’s worldwide borders.
Vacationers and returning residents can arrive with out quarantining, offered they’ve the required COVID vaccinations and have had a COVID take a look at beforehand. Nonetheless, new arrivals don’t need to be examined for the flu virus, which they could inadvertently deliver with them.
Flu, just a little like COVID, might be unfold by contaminated others earlier than signs come up or even when signs don’t seem, one thing we usually see in youngsters. So as soon as flu arrives, it’s going to inevitably unfold, no matter whether or not we use masks, hand sanitiser or different measures.
Up to now two years, for example, we’ve seen giant outbreaks of different frequent respiratory viruses. These embrace respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus, adenoviruses and rhinovirus. We’ve seen these even with strict COVID measures in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland throughout 2020-2021.
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How unhealthy will it get?
It’s extremely probably we’ll see COVID and influenza circulating on the identical time this winter. However much less sure is the extra catastrophic predictions within the media of a so-called twindemic or syndemic.
COVID is extra more likely to persist and enhance in the course of the winter, and someday throughout this era influenza will pop up. However we’re unsure concerning the particulars.
Will flu be gentle or extra regarding in 2022? Will we see an increase in circumstances in the course of the common June-September interval, peaking usually in August? The solutions to those questions depend on historical past, the present scenario and a great deal of hypothesis.
Historical past tells us that after two seasons of low or no influenza circulating, we must always anticipate a extra extreme season. That’s as a result of nearly all of individuals are not vaccinated in opposition to influenza every year and peoples’ pure immunity after an infection could have waned.
Nonetheless, present proof argues in opposition to this. Within the Northern Hemisphere, there have been low ranges of flu circulating in most international locations, with shorter outbreaks, in contrast with pre-pandemic years.
We’ve additionally seen quite a few international locations within the Southern Hemisphere – together with South Africa, Brazil and Chile – having out-of-season flu outbreaks, throughout their 2021-2022 summer season.
So this may increasingly imply the timing of Australia’s regular influenza season is perhaps delayed till spring and even later in 2022.
Will I get ‘flurona’?
We may additionally see twin infections – when somebody has COVID and influenza on the identical time – generally dubbed “flurona”.
Whereas this has occurred, the charges of twin infections globally have been low. Typically, underneath 1% of individuals with COVID even have influenza on the identical time. Even with twin infections, individuals don’t appear to be sicker than if they’d COVID alone.
We’ll have a greater concept of how many individuals can be contaminated with each viruses directly with the usage of broader laboratory assessments now out there at many websites. These so referred to as multiplex assessments will detect a spread of respiratory ailments, together with COVID and flu, in a single take a look at.
Luckily, there isn’t a method a brand new “hybrid virus” can emerge containing elements of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) and the influenza virus in individuals with twin infections. These are distinct viruses that can’t mix.
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How can I defend myself?
Regardless of the uncertainties round flu in Australia in 2022, one of the simplest ways to guard your self is to get your flu vaccine.
Everyone seems to be inclined to flu, regardless of your age, well being or life-style. Nonetheless, some age teams and a few individuals with underlying illness are more likely to undergo extra extreme penalties if contaminated with influenza.
These embrace younger youngsters (particularly these underneath two years outdated), individuals aged 65 and over, pregnant ladies, individuals with power lung and coronary heart illness, these with bronchial asthma, diabetes and people who find themselves overweight.
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Totally different flu vaccines goal completely different age teams with completely different formulations. These vaccines have a confirmed security report and normally solely trigger very gentle reactions, reminiscent of soreness on the injection web site, gentle fever or headache. These could final for a 12-24 hours and are simply handled with paracetamol or comparable medicines.
Flu vaccines are free for kids aged six months to underneath 5 years of age, individuals aged 65 or older, pregnant ladies and all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander individuals six months and older. Folks not eligible free of charge vaccines can nonetheless get them by way of their GP or some pharmacies.
This 12 months you gained’t need to schedule completely different visits in your influenza and COVID vaccinations. If wanted, you will get them on the identical time.
Influenza vaccines can be out there from late March and can present safety for a minimum of 6-12 months. Whereas these vaccines should not excellent they assist stop an infection and the extra critical penalties of the flu, reminiscent of hospitalisation and even loss of life. So in April to Could this 12 months, because the cool days and nights return, take into consideration reserving in and getting your flu shot.
Ian Barr owns shares in a vaccine producing firm. His Centre receives funding from the Australian Authorities Division of Well being in addition to quite a few business pharmaceutical firms.