There are nonetheless greater than six months to go earlier than the following Philippines election in Could 2022, however the horse-trading and behind-the-scenes machinations are hotting up. Incumbent president, the right-wing strongman Rodrigo Duterte, is banned by the structure from standing for the presidency once more subsequent yr – he did take into account the vice-presidency earlier than asserting his retirement from politics on October 2 – however the checklist of 9 official candidates contains some fascinating personalities, not least the retired boxing celebrity Manny Pacquiao.
But it surely’s the candidacy of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr – son of Ferdinand Marcos Snr – that has attracted the latest consideration. The straightforward reality of his candidacy being taken critically, regardless of the reminiscence of his late father, is a sign of how far the nation has come because the reviled dictator was ousted in a well-liked revolution in 1986 and fled to the US allegedly carrying billions of {dollars} from the nationwide treasury.
Bongbong isn’t any stranger to politics, having been appointed as vice-governor of the northern province of Ilcos Norte in 1980, aged 23, through the later and most troubling interval of his father’s rule. After Marcos Snr died in exile in 1989, the sitting president, Corazon Aquino, allowed the opposite members of his household to return to the Philippines, with Imelda Marcos dealing with greater than 60 legal and civil costs, together with corruption and tax evasion. Regardless of this shadow having over the household, by 1992 Bongbong was elected as a consultant for Ilcos Norte and served as governor from 1998. In 2010, he was elected senator for the Nacionalista Celebration.
In 2016 he tried to develop into vice chairman, shedding to the incumbent, Leni Robredo, by simply 0.64% of the votes forged, a consequence he bitterly contested. Now, after 5 years of cosying as much as Duterte, he’s trying to achieve the race for the highest job.
Sins of the daddy
For a era of Filipinos, the reminiscences of martial regulation, declared by Ferdinand Snr in 1972, are nonetheless uncooked. This second ushered in an period of repression which ultimately led to his ousting. However this instinctively visceral response to the Marcos identify just isn’t shared by many youthful Filipinos. This is a crucial issue to weigh up when fascinated by the 2022 election – in a rustic with a median age of below 26, these unhealthy reminiscences might not rely for an important deal on the polling cubicles.
This isn’t to say that residing victims of Ferdinand Snr’s reign of torture is not going to be heard – at the least one survivor has spoken out about his remedy by the hands of the navy in 1982. Finally, he’s unlikely to fully escape his father’s lengthy shadow – and the indicators are that he’ll embrace the household model. That is positive to stoke protests even additional as electioneering ramps up.
If he does play to the citizens’s want for a powerful chief, Bongbong will hardly be reinventing the political wheel within the Philippines. Duterte himself was carrying an terrible lot of murky baggage when he leapt from mayor of Davao Metropolis within the deep south to win the presidency six years in the past. This was a candidate that each Amnesty Worldwide and Human Rights Watch documented as having run dying squads.
The UN normal meeting had mentioned Duterte’s Davao Demise Squads (identified now because the DDS) way back to 2009, but none of this prevented him attracting 39% of the vote in 2016 – to make sure him the presidency. The truth is, this notoriety was a part of the picture he constructed to win energy.
Duterte’s victory affords one thing of a template for Bongbong in different methods too. Duterte efficiently weaponised Fb and the position social media is already taking part in in retelling the Marcos dictatorship on YouTube for a brand new era is already coming into query.
Placeholders and stalking horses
It’s early days but to precisely assess his likelihood of victory – the roster of candidates nonetheless feels removed from remaining greater than six months out from the election. Many suspect Duterte’s daughter Sara may enter the race late as a substitute for a Anna Capela Velasco, who many consider has been nominated as a placeholder for the 43-year-old present mayor of Davao. Issues will develop into clearer by November 15, which is the deadline for substitute candidates.
One other candidate, Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, has additionally been recognized as a potential placeholder for Sara. Dela Rosa was promoted by Duterte from his submit as a provincial police chief in Davao to the nationwide police chief and his level man on the drug struggle. He was nominated two hours earlier than the October 8 deadline – and his personal shock at being put ahead is a sign of the extent of sport taking part in occurring earlier than the marketing campaign correct has even bought underway.
A Duterte-Marcos alliance
There was a lot dialogue of a Duterte-Marcos, or Marcos-Duterte alliance. Duterte authorised a hero’s burial for the previous dictator’s stays and the households have an extended political relationship, going again to the Nineteen Sixties.
Bongbong has already indicated that Duterte’s drug struggle – which has resulted within the deaths of at the least 8,000 folks since 2016 – would proceed on his watch and he mentioned he would protect any suspects from the Worldwide Felony Courtroom investigation into crimes towards humanity dedicated by the Duterte regime which was formally authorised in September.
In essence, Bongbong is to this point overtly positioning himself as a continuity candidate, adopting the identical insurance policies and strategies as Duterte and proudly owning the Marcos household identify. So at the least on this regard, voters will know loads about who they intend to vote for – or towards.
Tom Smith doesn’t work for, seek the advice of, personal shares in or obtain funding from any firm or organisation that might profit from this text, and has disclosed no related affiliations past their tutorial appointment.